Buyer’s Market? Think Twice and Consider the Facts!

The last few years of the market have caused many buyers to get in the mind frame that it is a buyer’s market. That the market needs them and that they are in control. I have had many buyers that do not want to acknowledge the shifts in the market. Traditionally, we would say it is a buyer’s market if there is greater than a 6 month supply in inventory. This is definitely specific to the area that you live in but here in the Sacramento area we are short of six months inventory. What does this mean? It means that we are in a seller’s market people.

Few Things to Consider:

1. Sale to List Price Ratio – This represents the average list price of a home compared to the final sale price. In a buyer’s market we would generally see the sale price well below or below the list price. This would signify saturation of inventory and sellers that have to adjust the expectation based on interest and demand. Currently in certain price points in Sacramento, especially those under 300K we are seeing the final sale price above list price. Why? Banks are listing the properties at prices that are extremely attractive and many buyers are battling for the home. Some homes have as many as 20 offers on the property. This creates an emotional bidding war and the home goes to the highest bidder (with the best financing or apparent financing). The price is then pushed up and the Sale to list price is effected.
2. Days on the Market – Just like Sale to List Price the average time on the market is a good indicator of who is controlling the market. The majority of the sales are selling with less than 90 days on the market. In a buyer’s market the sale time is extended and we see up to 180+ days on the market. The homes that are coming on the market are selling and there would be no reason they would not. Interest Rates are low and with the Tax Credit one would be foolish not to consider buying.
3. Months of Inventory – Late 2007 and early in 2008 we had as much as 11 months of inventory on the market. This is not the case right now. With less than six months of inventory on the market the seller’s are in control. With their ridiculous per diem charges for extended escrows to their choices of southern California Title and Escrow companies. The seller is setting the terms and the standard and with multiple bids they can sort through and pick the cream of the crop. That being said there are a ton of homes that are owned by the banks that they are not releasing to the market. There is enough inventory in the wings, in my humble opinion, to turn the market right back to months of inventory. The banks are holding it back so that they do not drive prices down by over saturation.

Questions I hear from Buyers:

1. The property is listed for 140K. Do you think that I can offer 135K and ask for 5% seller credit? – No! That property will at least go for 140K and many times more. The things that you must take into consideration are the days on the market, whether or not it is seller owned, bank owned or a short sale. This will make a difference and this will change the strategy. Short Sales tend to have less interest because of the time they take but they also have little flexibility in price and credit. Traditional sellers have a number they want and it comes down to a meeting of the minds and the banks are the game that I described above.
2. Can I write offers on several properties and take the one that gets accepted? – This is where I defer to the Real Estate agent. Agents are effective because they build a reputation with other agents. The better the reputation the better the odds that your offer would be accepted. If you are writing offers on properties that you really do not want you are wasting a lot of people’s time.
3. I am approved for 150K and I really like this property. It is listed at 155K do you think I can qualify? In today’s market climate I suggest that if you are qualified for 150K that you start your search in the 130K – 140K range so that you have room to be consider if you are asked for Highest and best. If you are pushing your approval amount you are putting yourself at risk. With the Volatility of the rates I would ask your Loan Officer to make sure that they have padded the rate on the approval to cover any swings. If your approval is a best case rate and your offer is accepted and rates have gone up you may not qualify or feel comfortable with the new cost.

In conclusion, if you are in the market to buy you must understand the climate that you are in and have reasonable expectations. My most recent closing searched for one year for the right home and my most recent contract wrote 40 offers before one was accepted. That does not sound like a buyer’s market to me. The good news is that you are going to buy at a Low Price with a Low Rate or so we hope!

* Much of the information provided is specific to certain price points and in certain geographic locations. Always consult your Real Estate Professional to determine your market conditions as they may vary.  Traditional Sellers may have a different experience and short sales have their own behaviors which we will examine in posts to come with a very Special guest. A local Short Sale Specialist. If the banks begin to dump the inventory that they are holding back we could see another swing. Stay Tuned.

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Grandma and Grandpa Learned me Good!

Death is an inevitable part of life. Everyone will experience losing a loved one at some point of their life. Losing a loved one is a very difficult thing to process. It can stop you in your tracks and send your mind into warp speed. As your mind is warping you think about what I should have done, need to do, regret doing, and all the ways that you failed to connect to the loved one you have lost. Then you step back for a moment and begin to remember all the good things that you did with the loved one. You begin to see all the things that they had taught you that you did not know were lessons at the time.

As many of you already know I recently lost my Grandmother. Evelyn Freeman was one of the greatest people that I have had the opportunity to be influenced by. She was a mother, daughter, wife, grandmother, great-grandmother, friend, confidant, disciplinarian and most of all a teacher. It is because of my Grandparents that I am so sharp with my math skills. We would sit down at the table and play 10,000 which has various forms. We play with seven dice and have for the last 30 years. The game requires addition, quick number recognition and some luck if you want to beat my grandfather. After we took each other’s money playing 10,000 my dad and grandpa would begin to snore and grandma and I would sit up and play Skip-bo. This was another game that required math skills and the ability to plan ahead, have a strategy, notice potential obstacles, and be crafty and alert. I lost a lot but my grandmother would give in and let me win a few to keep me going. Many times she would stop and say did you see this Mathew? You could have done this if you would have been patient.

Here are a few things that Grandma and Grandpa taught me:

Commitment – 68 years my grandmother and grandfather were together. They were committed to their relationship that may not have always been just peachy. Through the good and the bad they stuck by each other and worked through it. Grandpa was a farmer and crops were not always plentiful. There were many times that their home value tanked and others when it sky-rocketed. Grandma and Grandpa knew a few things.

1. They always needed a place to stay and so they saw their place as “home” first and an investment second(it’s worth 77 times what they paid for it years ago).
2. Slow and steady wins the race. They were never in a hurry to make significant upgrades that they could not pay for with cash. Their “home” provided everything they needed. Although many of their friends were building palaces that eventually crumbled they stuck together.
3. Maintaining the goal of paying off the mortgage so they had to answer to no-one when they could have pulled out lot’s of money to do what they loved, Gambling.

Price is what you pay value is what you get – Grandma and Grandpa paid the price of hideous wallpaper that still resides on the walls in exchange for the ability to live without financial fears. As the crop failed they knew that they had enough seed stocked away to get them through the times. The wallpaper can wait. They did not rush to buy the next big thing. They also always stuck with a fixed rate mortgage. One term and done. If they refinanced they made sure they they stayed on track to pay off. Never backwards.

A slow start is a good start – This was a saying during every dice game when grandpa was losing. What he was really saying was: Every strong household needs a solid foundation. There is no need to rush anything in life. Live in the moment and understand what the future may bring. Know your history and be prepared for it even if it requires you to stay in second gear a little longer. “Don’t be lightning McQueen and allow your tires to blow!” When you build a foundation that is solid you will always catch up to the others. Just think about the three little pigs:)

Exercise good Judgement – Going back to skip-bo grandma was trying to tell me not to get ahead of myself. Study the board and my opponent, my market, prepare and seize the opportunity when it presents itself. Today’s market is that opportunity. Low prices and low rates. A perfect storm if you will. The government will pay you to buy your first home. Let your opponent show their cards and then make your first move. Always have a counter and never be too desperate.

1. Exit Strategy – So much of the market mess was created by the lack of an exit strategy. We knew how to get in and capitalize if the market stayed the course. We did not plan a strategy to get out. Long term hold, investment that pencils out from the gate, ability to stay the course as things go awry, and the ability to avoid panic. A carefully crafted exit strategy can be the difference. Grandpa and Grandma stayed the course and were always in a position to sell if they needed to simply because they did not leverage their home for toys.

Risk only what you are willing to lose - As I said earlier my grandparents loved to gamble. They always seemed to win although I know that this was not always the case.  What I began to realize as I grew older is that they only gambled with what they were willing to lose. This gave them the ability to to play freely. They did not have to worry about the downside of a bet. Lose and go home to play again another day. They did not gamble what they could not afford to lose. Many of us gambled with the very thing that we could not afford to lose. We took major risks, we rushed, bought more of a home than we ever deserved to own and now we are hoping that others can bail us out. Believe me when I say I am not criticizing. This was a hard learned lesson. For those that read this and say I have done everything right. My home is upside down and now I have to bailout all the others that made the mistakes my grandparents would have said:

1. No-one else matters. Are you selling your home? If no then remember that our home is worth 77 times what we paid for it. Have you lived in your “home” for 45 years. Be patient and you will be rewarded for your patience.
2. A slow start is a good start – so you started backwards – you are now only left with forward – cherish it!
3. Owning a home is like marriage. It is a commitment that you must stick with. Don’t divorce your home at the first sign of adversity. Remember what you loved about it in the first place and focus on that. In the waning moments of my grandmother’s life she looked over at my grandfather and said, “I always had an eye for that man.” She remembered that her commitment was to the very end.
4. Remain childlike. Continue to question until they day that you are gone. My grandpa said to me the other day, “Mathew I am always learning something new. I know a lot about farming but the things that they can do now days. I just finished learning about a new almond tree that does not require pruning or bees. Bees are $145 a hive driving the profit down. We will see how they yield in comparison but they are the new thing.” Perspective for a moment, this is my 93 year old grandfather who can spit out the number of days before corn will produce good silage. 105 days if you were wondering.
5. Use or lose it! Freeman’s live long and it is mainly because they continue to challenge themselves to the end. We are a stubborn bunch who are strapped with curiosity. That game 10,000 not only taught me the sharp arithmetic skills that I have come to love but it kept my Grandparents learning and teaching.

If you are one of the many that lost your home to foreclosure or had to short-sale just know that this does not define you. How you bounce back will. I strongly suggest Dave Ramsey’s Total Money Makeover it will change the way that you look at money management forever. Three years and some guidance from one of the most sought after finance educators in the country and you will have positioned yourself to buy again. If you are one of those that has done everything well and were a victim of the market answer this: Do you open your 401K statements and look at the balance weekly? If you answered know then stop thinking about the house.

In conclusion, when I was reflecting back on the life of my Grandmother I began to realize that I am in such a hurry sometimes. Why the rush? My grandmother lived 89 happy years and one of the last things that I heard her say was I always had an eye for that man. Take care of him. She knew what was ultimately important. She also asked to go in her home. Not a convalescent or a hospital room. No, she wanted to go in the very home that she spent her life in. Home-ownership to my grandmother was a commitment. One that was not rushed, doctored up, neglected, but one that was honored. She was humbled by the fact that she was allowed the opportunity to own acreage in the heart of the valley. Prime agricultural Real Estate. She was not willing to risk that and move to bigger and better. She gambled only what she was willing to do without.

In loving memory of Evelyn Freeman. You will forever be missed but never forgotten. May your lessons continue to be passed on for generations to come.